ASM vs OGC
Monaco (home) vs Nice · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ASM win 58.9% fair 1.70
Draw 21.4% fair 4.67
OGC win 19.6% fair 5.09
Expected Goals
ASM
2.05
—
1.04
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.3% | fair 2.48 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 2-1 OGC | 9.9% | |
| ASM 1-1 OGC | 9.7% | |
| ASM 2-0 OGC | 9.6% | |
| ASM 1-0 OGC | 9.3% | |
| ASM 3-1 OGC | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).