ASM vs OGC
Monaco (home) vs Nice · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
ASM win 58.6% fair 1.71
Draw 20.6% fair 4.86
OGC win 20.9% fair 4.80
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.0% / 19.6% / 19.4%.
Expected Goals
ASM
2.25
—
1.20
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.9% | fair 3.04 |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 2-1 OGC | 9.6% | |
| ASM 1-1 OGC | 8.6% | |
| ASM 2-0 OGC | 8.0% | |
| ASM 3-1 OGC | 7.2% | |
| ASM 1-0 OGC | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).