ASM vs PFC
Monaco (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ASM win 48.1% fair 2.08
Draw 23.5% fair 4.25
PFC win 28.4% fair 3.52
Expected Goals
ASM
1.78
—
1.31
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.2% | fair 2.49 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-1 PFC | 10.6% | |
| ASM 2-1 PFC | 9.4% | |
| ASM 1-0 PFC | 8.1% | |
| ASM 2-0 PFC | 7.2% | |
| ASM 1-2 PFC | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).