ASM vs PSG
Monaco (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ASM win 29.4% fair 3.40
Draw 23.1% fair 4.34
PSG win 47.6% fair 2.10
Expected Goals
ASM
1.33
—
1.84
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.5% | fair 2.60 |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-1 PSG | 10.3% | |
| ASM 1-2 PSG | 9.5% | |
| ASM 0-1 PSG | 7.7% | |
| ASM 0-2 PSG | 7.1% | |
| ASM 2-1 PSG | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).