ASM vs REN
Monaco (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ASM win 46.0% fair 2.17
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
REN win 32.0% fair 3.13
Expected Goals
ASM
1.99
—
1.64
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.2% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.8% | fair 3.36 |
| Both teams to score | 69.6% | fair 1.44 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-1 REN | 8.7% | |
| ASM 2-1 REN | 8.6% | |
| ASM 1-2 REN | 7.1% | |
| ASM 2-2 REN | 7.1% | |
| ASM 3-1 REN | 5.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).