ASM vs STR
Monaco (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ASM win 51.3% fair 1.95
Draw 21.9% fair 4.56
STR win 26.7% fair 3.74
Expected Goals
ASM
2.04
—
1.41
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.8% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.2% | fair 3.02 |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 2-1 STR | 9.3% | |
| ASM 1-1 STR | 9.2% | |
| ASM 2-0 STR | 6.6% | |
| ASM 2-2 STR | 6.6% | |
| ASM 1-0 STR | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).