ASM vs TFC
Monaco (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 79% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 2-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.5% / 23.1% / 24.4%.
Expected Goals
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ASM ×0.900 (matched 11), TFC ×0.900 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.9% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-1 TFC | 10.8% | |
| ASM 2-1 TFC | 9.7% | |
| ASM 1-0 TFC | 9.3% | |
| ASM 2-0 TFC | 8.4% | |
| ASM 1-2 TFC | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).