ASM vs TFC
Monaco (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
ASM win 49.2% fair 2.03
Draw 22.7% fair 4.41
TFC win 28.1% fair 3.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.9% / 22.2% / 27.9%.
Expected Goals
ASM
1.92
—
1.40
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 64.2% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-1 TFC | 9.7% | |
| ASM 2-1 TFC | 9.3% | |
| ASM 1-0 TFC | 7.0% | |
| ASM 1-2 TFC | 6.8% | |
| ASM 2-0 TFC | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).