ASM vs EST
Monaco (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ASM win 63.2% fair 1.58
Draw 20.0% fair 5.01
EST win 16.8% fair 5.95
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 66.6% / 18.9% / 14.6%.
Expected Goals
ASM
2.23
—
0.94
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.6% | fair 2.59 |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 2-0 EST | 10.4% | |
| ASM 2-1 EST | 9.8% | |
| ASM 1-0 EST | 9.4% | |
| ASM 1-1 EST | 8.8% | |
| ASM 3-0 EST | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).