OGC vs SCO
Nice (home) vs Angers · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OGC win 43.3% fair 2.31
Draw 26.5% fair 3.78
SCO win 30.3% fair 3.30
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.0% / 26.5% / 30.4%.
Expected Goals
OGC
1.40
—
1.13
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 SCO | 12.6% | |
| OGC 1-0 SCO | 11.2% | |
| OGC 0-1 SCO | 9.0% | |
| OGC 2-1 SCO | 8.8% | |
| OGC 0-0 SCO | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).