OGC vs AJA
Nice (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OGC win 42.1% fair 2.38
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
AJA win 32.0% fair 3.12
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.6% / 25.9% / 32.5%.
Expected Goals
OGC
1.43
—
1.23
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 AJA | 12.3% | |
| OGC 1-0 AJA | 10.0% | |
| OGC 2-1 AJA | 8.8% | |
| OGC 0-1 AJA | 8.6% | |
| OGC 1-2 AJA | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).