OGC vs SB29
Nice (home) vs Brest · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OGC win 38.6% fair 2.59
Draw 24.8% fair 4.04
SB29 win 36.6% fair 2.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.8% / 24.6% / 37.7%.
Expected Goals
OGC
1.47
—
1.47
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 SB29 | 11.4% | |
| OGC 2-1 SB29 | 8.4% | |
| OGC 1-2 SB29 | 8.4% | |
| OGC 1-0 SB29 | 7.8% | |
| OGC 0-1 SB29 | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).