OGC vs HAC
Nice (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OGC win 41.8% fair 2.39
Draw 26.9% fair 3.72
HAC win 31.3% fair 3.19
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.3% / 27.0% / 31.6%.
Expected Goals
OGC
1.34
—
1.13
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | fair 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 HAC | 12.8% | |
| OGC 1-0 HAC | 11.3% | |
| OGC 0-1 HAC | 9.6% | |
| OGC 2-1 HAC | 8.6% | |
| OGC 0-0 HAC | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).