OGC vs LMFC
Nice (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 63%
Match Outcome
OGC win 47.0% fair 2.13
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
LMFC win 28.4% fair 3.52
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.6% / 24.1% / 28.3%.
Expected Goals
OGC
1.67
—
1.23
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 LMFC | 11.3% | |
| OGC 2-1 LMFC | 9.4% | |
| OGC 1-0 LMFC | 9.2% | |
| OGC 2-0 LMFC | 7.7% | |
| OGC 1-2 LMFC | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).