OGC vs RCL
Nice (home) vs Lens · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OGC win 24.6% fair 4.06
Draw 22.7% fair 4.41
RCL win 52.7% fair 1.90
Expected Goals
OGC
1.12
—
1.90
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.9% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 RCL | 10.4% | |
| OGC 1-2 RCL | 9.9% | |
| OGC 0-1 RCL | 9.3% | |
| OGC 0-2 RCL | 8.8% | |
| OGC 1-3 RCL | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).