OGC vs LIL
Nice (home) vs Lille · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
OGC win 26.5% fair 3.77
Draw 24.0% fair 4.16
LIL win 49.5% fair 2.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.5% / 23.7% / 52.8%.
Expected Goals
OGC
1.08
—
1.73
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 LIL | 11.2% | |
| OGC 0-1 LIL | 10.4% | |
| OGC 1-2 LIL | 9.7% | |
| OGC 0-2 LIL | 9.0% | |
| OGC 1-0 LIL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).