OGC vs FCL
Nice (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 73% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 0-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
OGC win 35.1% fair 2.85
Draw 24.1% fair 4.14
FCL win 40.8% fair 2.45
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.2% / 23.8% / 43.0%.
Expected Goals
OGC
1.42
—
1.65
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.6% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 FCL | 10.9% | |
| OGC 1-2 FCL | 9.0% | |
| OGC 2-1 FCL | 7.7% | |
| OGC 0-1 FCL | 7.6% | |
| OGC 1-0 FCL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).