OGC vs FCL
Nice (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
OGC win 35.0% fair 2.86
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
FCL win 40.0% fair 2.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.2% / 24.8% / 42.0%.
Expected Goals
OGC
1.34
—
1.53
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 FCL | 11.6% | |
| OGC 1-2 FCL | 8.9% | |
| OGC 0-1 FCL | 8.7% | |
| OGC 2-1 FCL | 7.8% | |
| OGC 1-0 FCL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).