OGC vs OL
Nice (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OGC win 26.9% fair 3.71
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
OL win 48.3% fair 2.07
Expected Goals
OGC
1.06
—
1.64
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 OL | 11.7% | |
| OGC 0-1 OL | 11.0% | |
| OGC 1-2 OL | 9.6% | |
| OGC 0-2 OL | 9.0% | |
| OGC 1-0 OL | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).