OGC vs OM
Nice (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OGC win 27.2% fair 3.67
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
OM win 50.5% fair 1.98
Expected Goals
OGC
1.30
—
1.98
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.6% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.4% | fair 2.75 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 OM | 9.7% | |
| OGC 1-2 OM | 9.6% | |
| OGC 0-1 OM | 7.5% | |
| OGC 0-2 OM | 7.4% | |
| OGC 1-3 OM | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).