OGC vs ASM
Nice (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OGC win 29.9% fair 3.35
Draw 24.1% fair 4.16
ASM win 46.1% fair 2.17
Expected Goals
OGC
1.24
—
1.71
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 ASM | 11.1% | |
| OGC 1-2 ASM | 9.5% | |
| OGC 0-1 ASM | 8.9% | |
| OGC 0-2 ASM | 7.6% | |
| OGC 2-1 ASM | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).