OGC vs PFC
Nice (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OGC win 32.9% fair 3.04
Draw 25.2% fair 3.97
PFC win 41.9% fair 2.39
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.2% / 25.1% / 43.7%.
Expected Goals
OGC
1.25
—
1.53
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 PFC | 11.9% | |
| OGC 0-1 PFC | 9.5% | |
| OGC 1-2 PFC | 9.1% | |
| OGC 1-0 PFC | 7.8% | |
| OGC 2-1 PFC | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).