OGC vs PSG
Nice (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OGC win 18.4% fair 5.44
Draw 20.3% fair 4.93
PSG win 61.3% fair 1.63
Expected Goals
OGC
0.94
—
2.14
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.6% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 0-2 PSG | 10.5% | |
| OGC 1-2 PSG | 9.9% | |
| OGC 0-1 PSG | 9.9% | |
| OGC 1-1 PSG | 9.2% | |
| OGC 0-3 PSG | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).