OGC vs PSG
Nice (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
OGC win 18.5% fair 5.41
Draw 19.4% fair 5.16
PSG win 62.1% fair 1.61
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 14.8% / 18.5% / 66.7%.
Expected Goals
OGC
0.99
—
2.30
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.2% | fair 2.76 |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 0-2 PSG | 9.9% | |
| OGC 1-2 PSG | 9.8% | |
| OGC 0-1 PSG | 8.6% | |
| OGC 1-1 PSG | 8.5% | |
| OGC 0-3 PSG | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).