OGC vs REN
Nice (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
OGC win 30.4% fair 3.29
Draw 23.0% fair 4.34
REN win 46.6% fair 2.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.9% / 22.5% / 49.6%.
Expected Goals
OGC
1.36
—
1.87
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.3% | fair 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 REN | 10.1% | |
| OGC 1-2 REN | 9.4% | |
| OGC 0-1 REN | 7.4% | |
| OGC 0-2 REN | 6.9% | |
| OGC 2-1 REN | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).