OGC vs STR
Nice (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
OGC win 32.3% fair 3.09
Draw 23.6% fair 4.23
STR win 44.0% fair 2.27
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.2% / 23.2% / 46.6%.
Expected Goals
OGC
1.38
—
1.76
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.3% | fair 2.55 |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 STR | 10.5% | |
| OGC 1-2 STR | 9.3% | |
| OGC 0-1 STR | 7.6% | |
| OGC 2-1 STR | 7.2% | |
| OGC 0-2 STR | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).