OGC vs TFC
Nice (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OGC win 34.0% fair 2.94
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
TFC win 40.6% fair 2.46
Expected Goals
OGC
1.28
—
1.49
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 TFC | 11.9% | |
| OGC 0-1 TFC | 9.3% | |
| OGC 1-2 TFC | 8.9% | |
| OGC 1-0 TFC | 8.0% | |
| OGC 2-1 TFC | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).