OGC vs EST
Nice (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OGC win 47.8% fair 2.09
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
EST win 26.9% fair 3.72
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.3% / 25.2% / 26.5%.
Expected Goals
OGC
1.57
—
1.09
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 EST | 12.0% | |
| OGC 1-0 EST | 11.0% | |
| OGC 2-1 EST | 9.4% | |
| OGC 2-0 EST | 8.6% | |
| OGC 0-1 EST | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).