OGC vs EST
Nice (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
OGC win 45.0% fair 2.22
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
EST win 29.7% fair 3.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.9% / 25.1% / 29.9%.
Expected Goals
OGC
1.54
—
1.21
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| OGC 1-1 EST | 11.9% | |
| OGC 1-0 EST | 9.8% | |
| OGC 2-1 EST | 9.2% | |
| OGC 0-1 EST | 7.7% | |
| OGC 2-0 EST | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OGC goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).