PFC vs SCO
Paris FC (home) vs Angers · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
PFC win 50.4% fair 1.98
Draw 25.0% fair 3.99
SCO win 24.5% fair 4.07
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.3% / 24.9% / 23.8%.
Expected Goals
PFC
1.61
—
1.01
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 SCO | 11.8% | |
| PFC 1-0 SCO | 11.7% | |
| PFC 2-1 SCO | 9.5% | |
| PFC 2-0 SCO | 9.4% | |
| PFC 0-1 SCO | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).