PFC vs AJA
Paris FC (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PFC win 53.7% fair 1.86
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
AJA win 23.0% fair 4.36
Expected Goals
PFC
1.81
—
1.07
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 AJA | 10.9% | |
| PFC 1-0 AJA | 10.2% | |
| PFC 2-1 AJA | 9.8% | |
| PFC 2-0 AJA | 9.2% | |
| PFC 0-1 AJA | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).