PFC vs HAC
Paris FC (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
PFC win 46.7% fair 2.14
Draw 26.1% fair 3.84
HAC win 27.2% fair 3.67
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.0% / 26.1% / 26.9%.
Expected Goals
PFC
1.48
—
1.05
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 HAC | 12.4% | |
| PFC 1-0 HAC | 11.8% | |
| PFC 2-1 HAC | 9.2% | |
| PFC 2-0 HAC | 8.7% | |
| PFC 0-1 HAC | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).