PFC vs HAC
Paris FC (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PFC win 53.0% fair 1.89
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
HAC win 22.7% fair 4.41
Expected Goals
PFC
1.70
—
0.98
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-0 HAC | 11.6% | |
| PFC 1-1 HAC | 11.4% | |
| PFC 2-0 HAC | 9.9% | |
| PFC 2-1 HAC | 9.7% | |
| PFC 0-0 HAC | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).