PFC vs LMFC
Paris FC (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PFC win 59.0% fair 1.69
Draw 21.3% fair 4.69
LMFC win 19.7% fair 5.08
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.7% / 20.4% / 17.9%.
Expected Goals
PFC
2.10
—
1.04
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.4% | fair 2.54 |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 2-1 LMFC | 9.9% | |
| PFC 2-0 LMFC | 9.6% | |
| PFC 1-1 LMFC | 9.5% | |
| PFC 1-0 LMFC | 9.1% | |
| PFC 3-1 LMFC | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).