PFC vs LMFC
Paris FC (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
PFC win 55.8% fair 1.79
Draw 22.4% fair 4.46
LMFC win 21.8% fair 4.59
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.7% / 21.5% / 19.9%.
Expected Goals
PFC
1.98
—
1.07
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.2% | fair 2.43 |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 LMFC | 10.0% | |
| PFC 2-1 LMFC | 9.9% | |
| PFC 1-0 LMFC | 9.4% | |
| PFC 2-0 LMFC | 9.3% | |
| PFC 3-1 LMFC | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).