PFC vs RCL
Paris FC (home) vs Lens · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PFC win 34.3% fair 2.92
Draw 24.0% fair 4.16
RCL win 41.7% fair 2.40
Expected Goals
PFC
1.42
—
1.65
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 RCL | 10.9% | |
| PFC 1-2 RCL | 9.0% | |
| PFC 2-1 RCL | 7.7% | |
| PFC 0-1 RCL | 7.7% | |
| PFC 1-0 RCL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).