PFC vs LIL
Paris FC (home) vs Lille · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PFC win 36.7% fair 2.72
Draw 26.1% fair 3.83
LIL win 37.2% fair 2.69
Expected Goals
PFC
1.30
—
1.35
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 LIL | 12.4% | |
| PFC 0-1 LIL | 9.6% | |
| PFC 1-0 LIL | 9.2% | |
| PFC 1-2 LIL | 8.4% | |
| PFC 2-1 LIL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).