PFC vs FCL
Paris FC (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PFC win 45.7% fair 2.19
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
FCL win 29.0% fair 3.45
Expected Goals
PFC
1.54
—
1.17
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 FCL | 12.0% | |
| PFC 1-0 FCL | 10.2% | |
| PFC 2-1 FCL | 9.2% | |
| PFC 2-0 FCL | 7.9% | |
| PFC 0-1 FCL | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).