PFC vs OM
Paris FC (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PFC win 38.0% fair 2.63
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
OM win 38.9% fair 2.57
Expected Goals
PFC
1.65
—
1.72
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.4% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.6% | fair 2.89 |
| Both teams to score | 66.3% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 OM | 9.8% | |
| PFC 1-2 OM | 8.4% | |
| PFC 2-1 OM | 8.0% | |
| PFC 2-2 OM | 6.9% | |
| PFC 0-1 OM | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).