PFC vs ASM
Paris FC (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PFC win 40.6% fair 2.46
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
ASM win 35.2% fair 2.84
Expected Goals
PFC
1.58
—
1.49
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.9% | fair 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 ASM | 11.0% | |
| PFC 2-1 ASM | 8.6% | |
| PFC 1-2 ASM | 8.1% | |
| PFC 1-0 ASM | 7.4% | |
| PFC 0-1 ASM | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).