PFC vs ASM
Paris FC (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
PFC win 40.4% fair 2.47
Draw 23.5% fair 4.25
ASM win 36.0% fair 2.78
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.7% / 23.1% / 37.2%.
Expected Goals
PFC
1.67
—
1.61
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.5% | fair 2.74 |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 ASM | 10.1% | |
| PFC 2-1 ASM | 8.5% | |
| PFC 1-2 ASM | 8.2% | |
| PFC 2-2 ASM | 6.8% | |
| PFC 1-0 ASM | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).