PFC vs OGC
Paris FC (home) vs Nice · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
PFC win 52.7% fair 1.90
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
OGC win 23.8% fair 4.19
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.1% / 23.0% / 22.9%.
Expected Goals
PFC
1.81
—
1.10
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 OGC | 10.8% | |
| PFC 1-0 OGC | 9.9% | |
| PFC 2-1 OGC | 9.8% | |
| PFC 2-0 OGC | 8.9% | |
| PFC 0-1 OGC | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).