PFC vs PSG
Paris FC (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PFC win 26.3% fair 3.81
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
PSG win 50.7% fair 1.97
Expected Goals
PFC
1.19
—
1.86
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 PSG | 10.5% | |
| PFC 1-2 PSG | 9.7% | |
| PFC 0-1 PSG | 8.8% | |
| PFC 0-2 PSG | 8.2% | |
| PFC 2-1 PSG | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).