PFC vs REN
Paris FC (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-18 · FT 4-3 ) · lineup adj ×0.93 / ×1.05
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
PFC win 38.2% fair 2.62
Draw 23.9% fair 4.19
REN win 37.9% fair 2.64
Expected Goals
PFC
1.56
—
1.60
REN
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): PFC ×0.934 (matched 11), REN ×1.050 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 REN | 10.6% | |
| PFC 1-2 REN | 8.5% | |
| PFC 2-1 REN | 8.3% | |
| PFC 0-1 REN | 6.8% | |
| PFC 1-0 REN | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).