PFC vs STR
Paris FC (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
PFC win 41.3% fair 2.42
Draw 23.9% fair 4.19
STR win 34.8% fair 2.87
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.7% / 23.5% / 35.7%.
Expected Goals
PFC
1.64
—
1.53
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.7% | fair 2.59 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 STR | 10.5% | |
| PFC 2-1 STR | 8.7% | |
| PFC 1-2 STR | 8.0% | |
| PFC 1-0 STR | 6.9% | |
| PFC 2-2 STR | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).