PFC vs TFC
Paris FC (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PFC win 45.1% fair 2.22
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
TFC win 30.4% fair 3.29
Expected Goals
PFC
1.62
—
1.29
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.2% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-1 TFC | 11.4% | |
| PFC 2-1 TFC | 9.2% | |
| PFC 1-0 TFC | 8.8% | |
| PFC 1-2 TFC | 7.4% | |
| PFC 2-0 TFC | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).