PFC vs EST
Paris FC (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PFC win 59.0% fair 1.69
Draw 21.9% fair 4.57
EST win 19.1% fair 5.23
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.6% / 21.1% / 17.3%.
Expected Goals
PFC
1.99
—
0.95
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| PFC 1-0 EST | 10.5% | |
| PFC 2-0 EST | 10.5% | |
| PFC 1-1 EST | 10.0% | |
| PFC 2-1 EST | 9.9% | |
| PFC 3-0 EST | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PFC goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).