PSG vs SCO
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Angers · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PSG win 72.8% fair 1.37
Draw 16.4% fair 6.10
SCO win 10.8% fair 9.22
Expected Goals
PSG
2.48
—
0.73
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.6% | fair 2.66 |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-0 SCO | 12.4% | |
| PSG 3-0 SCO | 10.2% | |
| PSG 1-0 SCO | 10.0% | |
| PSG 2-1 SCO | 9.1% | |
| PSG 3-1 SCO | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).