PSG vs AJA
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PSG win 72.3% fair 1.38
Draw 16.3% fair 6.12
AJA win 11.4% fair 8.77
Expected Goals
PSG
2.54
—
0.80
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.2% | fair 2.84 |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-0 AJA | 11.5% | |
| PSG 3-0 AJA | 9.7% | |
| PSG 2-1 AJA | 9.1% | |
| PSG 1-0 AJA | 9.0% | |
| PSG 3-1 AJA | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).