PSG vs SB29
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Brest · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PSG win 70.3% fair 1.42
Draw 16.6% fair 6.01
SB29 win 13.1% fair 7.65
Expected Goals
PSG
2.61
—
0.95
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.1% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.9% | fair 3.24 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-0 SB29 | 9.7% | |
| PSG 2-1 SB29 | 9.2% | |
| PSG 3-0 SB29 | 8.4% | |
| PSG 3-1 SB29 | 8.0% | |
| PSG 1-0 SB29 | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).