PSG vs HAC
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PSG win 71.2% fair 1.40
Draw 17.3% fair 5.79
HAC win 11.5% fair 8.67
Expected Goals
PSG
2.38
—
0.74
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.9% | fair 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | fair 2.12 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-0 HAC | 12.6% | |
| PSG 1-0 HAC | 10.6% | |
| PSG 3-0 HAC | 10.0% | |
| PSG 2-1 HAC | 9.2% | |
| PSG 1-1 HAC | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).