PSG vs LMFC
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 70%
Match Outcome
PSG win 74.8% fair 1.34
Draw 14.4% fair 6.95
LMFC win 10.9% fair 9.22
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 81.2% / 11.9% / 6.9%.
Expected Goals
PSG
2.99
—
0.80
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.0% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.0% | fair 3.70 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-0 LMFC | 10.1% | |
| PSG 3-0 LMFC | 10.1% | |
| PSG 2-1 LMFC | 8.1% | |
| PSG 3-1 LMFC | 8.1% | |
| PSG 4-0 LMFC | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).