PSG vs RCL
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Lens · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PSG win 54.0% fair 1.85
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
RCL win 23.9% fair 4.18
Expected Goals
PSG
1.99
—
1.24
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.5% | fair 2.66 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 1-1 RCL | 9.8% | |
| PSG 2-1 RCL | 9.7% | |
| PSG 1-0 RCL | 7.9% | |
| PSG 2-0 RCL | 7.9% | |
| PSG 3-1 RCL | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).