PSG vs LIL
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Lille · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PSG win 55.4% fair 1.81
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
LIL win 21.5% fair 4.66
Expected Goals
PSG
1.81
—
1.01
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.15 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 1-1 LIL | 10.9% | |
| PSG 1-0 LIL | 10.8% | |
| PSG 2-1 LIL | 9.9% | |
| PSG 2-0 LIL | 9.8% | |
| PSG 0-1 LIL | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).