PSG vs FCL
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PSG win 64.6% fair 1.55
Draw 19.9% fair 5.03
FCL win 15.5% fair 6.46
Expected Goals
PSG
2.16
—
0.88
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.6% | fair 2.41 |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-0 FCL | 11.2% | |
| PSG 1-0 FCL | 10.4% | |
| PSG 2-1 FCL | 9.8% | |
| PSG 1-1 FCL | 9.1% | |
| PSG 3-0 FCL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).