PSG vs OL
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 85% · pregame locked (10-26 · FT 2-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
PSG win 52.6% fair 1.90
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
OL win 23.1% fair 4.33
Expected Goals
PSG
1.69
—
1.01
OL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): PSG ×0.900 (matched 11), OL ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 1-1 OL | 11.5% | |
| PSG 1-0 OL | 11.3% | |
| PSG 2-1 OL | 9.7% | |
| PSG 2-0 OL | 9.6% | |
| PSG 0-1 OL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).