PSG vs OL
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
PSG win 56.7% fair 1.76
Draw 21.8% fair 4.60
OL win 21.6% fair 4.63
Expected Goals
PSG
2.02
—
1.13
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-1 OL | 9.9% | |
| PSG 1-1 OL | 9.8% | |
| PSG 2-0 OL | 8.7% | |
| PSG 1-0 OL | 8.6% | |
| PSG 3-1 OL | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).