PSG vs OM
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PSG win 58.9% fair 1.70
Draw 20.0% fair 5.01
OM win 21.1% fair 4.74
Expected Goals
PSG
2.31
—
1.29
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.6% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.4% | fair 3.29 |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-1 OM | 9.4% | |
| PSG 1-1 OM | 8.2% | |
| PSG 2-0 OM | 7.3% | |
| PSG 3-1 OM | 7.2% | |
| PSG 1-0 OM | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).