PSG vs ASM
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 81%
Match Outcome
PSG win 63.9% fair 1.57
Draw 18.5% fair 5.41
ASM win 17.7% fair 5.66
Expected Goals
PSG
2.51
—
1.19
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.5% | fair 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.5% | fair 3.51 |
| Both teams to score | 63.9% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-1 ASM | 9.3% | |
| PSG 2-0 ASM | 7.8% | |
| PSG 3-1 ASM | 7.8% | |
| PSG 1-1 ASM | 7.4% | |
| PSG 3-0 ASM | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).