PSG vs ASM
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (09-04 · FT 1-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.97 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
PSG win 63.4% fair 1.58
Draw 19.2% fair 5.22
ASM win 17.4% fair 5.74
Expected Goals
PSG
2.36
—
1.09
ASM
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): PSG ×0.972 (matched 11), ASM ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.9% | fair 3.04 |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-1 ASM | 9.6% | |
| PSG 2-0 ASM | 8.8% | |
| PSG 1-1 ASM | 8.1% | |
| PSG 3-1 ASM | 7.6% | |
| PSG 1-0 ASM | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).